Daily Spotlight

December Usually a Winner

Since 1980, December has among the highest batting average -- or winning percentage of positive stock-market performances -- of any month. The S&P 500 rises in December 73% of the time, compared to an average of 63% for all other months. The other top months for stocks are November (73%, including a 4.5% increase in 2024) and April and May (both 71%). On average in December, stocks have risen 1.3%. The best Decembers have been 1991 (+11.2%), 1987 (+7.3%), 2010 (+6.5%), 1999 (+5.8%), and 1998 (+5.6%). Last year wasn't bad, with a 4.8% advance. There have been clunkers, such as 1980 (-3.4%), 1981 (-3.0%), 1986 (-2.8%), and 2018 (-9.2%). The month usually starts fast, coming off a PCE inflation reading and ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report. The Fed will be meeting in the month and we expect one more rate cut this year as inflation eases. Many companies will hold Investor Conferences and provide initial outlooks for 2025. As the second half of the month approaches, volume will tail off and thinly-traded market sectors could become more volatile. Sell-offs may present opportunities for generating tax losses or for buying quality stocks on sale (for long-term investors)....  Last year wasn't bad, with a 4.8% advance. There have been clunkers, such as 1980 (-3.4%), 1981 (-3.0%), 1986 (-2.8%), and 2018 (-9.2%). The month usually starts fast, coming off a PCE inflation reading and ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report. The Fed will be meeting in the month and we expect one more rate cut this year as inflation eases. Many companies will hold Investor Conferences and provide initial outlooks for 2025. As the second half of the month approaches, volume will tail off and thinly-traded market sectors could become more volatile. Sell-offs may present opportunities for generating tax losses or for buying quality stocks on sale (for long-term investors).  more

Market Podcast

Analyst
Quick Notes

Weekly Economic Commentary