Daily Spotlight

Jobs Data Due Friday

The Labor Department's Nonfarm Payrolls report for January 2023 will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, February 3, 2023. This report is always eagerly awaited by investors, as it typically provides the first -- and most-important - view of the previous month's economic activity. This month's report will be parsed carefully amid concerns that the U.S is headed toward a recession, with the Federal Reserve focused on slowing the economy to reduce inflation. Recent jobs reports indicated that the employment environment remains healthy and that the Fed still has a chance to steer the economy toward a soft landing. Last month, according to the Labor Department (DOL), the economy added 223,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate declined slightly to 3.5% (near cyclical lows). The DOL also noted that there are still 10.5 million job openings available. This month, our Nonfarm Payrolls forecast anticipates that 185,000 new positions were created in January. Our estimate is bolstered by recent declines in initial unemployment claims, tempered by layoff announcements in Technology and other sectors. Indeed, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, U.S.-based employers announced 43,651 job cuts in December 2022, a 129% increase from the 19,052 cuts announced in December 2021. We look for the unemployment rate to tick up to 3.6% (as more workers re-enter the workforce) and for average hourly wage gains of approximately 4.8%. Many forecasters are calling for a recession in 2023. If that is going to be the case, we may see the unemployment rise toward 5.0% in the months ahead. ...  employment environment remains healthy and that the Fed still has a chance to steer the economy toward a soft landing. Last month, according to the Labor Department (DOL), the economy added 223,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate declined slightly to 3.5% (near cyclical lows). The DOL also noted that there are still 10.5 million job openings available. This month, our Nonfarm Payrolls forecast anticipates that 185,000 new positions were created in January. Our estimate is bolstered by recent declines in initial unemployment claims, tempered by layoff announcements in Technology and other sectors. Indeed, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, U.S.-based employers announced 43,651 job cuts in December 2022, a 129% increase from the 19,052 cuts announced in December 2021. We look for the unemployment rate to tick up to 3.6% (as more workers re-enter the workforce) and for average hourly wage gains of approximately 4.8%. Many forecasters are calling for a recession in 2023. If that is going to be the case, we may see the unemployment rise toward 5.0% in the months ahead.   more

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